Gold Bulls Retreat as Traders Cut Bets to a 19-Week Low

Speculative money is beating a retreat from precious metals. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, net-long positions held by speculators in COMEX gold fell by 2,394 contracts to 108,685 in the week ended October 20 — the smallest such position in 19 weeks. The pattern ran across the metals complex: silver net-longs dropped to 3,746 contracts, a low of more than two years, copper fell to 48,009 contracts, a six-week low, and NYMEX platinum slipped to 6,615 contracts, the weakest in 12 weeks. Palladium was the lone exception, with net-longs rising.

The timing is notable. Money managers were already trimming bullish metal bets before Friday’s session, when the U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to close at 101.811 against a basket of six major currencies. A stronger dollar makes metals priced in dollars more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, a familiar headwind for gold. The euro slipped to $1.1193 from $1.1220 a day earlier, while the pound eased to $1.3371 from $1.3400 and the dollar edged up to 156.87 yen.

Equities told a split story on Friday. All three major U.S. indexes closed lower — the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.24%, the S&P 500 lost 0.52% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.21% — yet energy was the standout sector, gaining about 2.5% as oil and gas shares rallied. Precious metals and metal raw materials sat at the other end of the board. For the week, the S&P 500 lost roughly 0.4%, the Dow gained more than 0.4% and the Nasdaq fell 0.7%.

The energy bid had an obvious trigger. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy said two supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels of crude combined struck mines while trying to cross the southern Strait of Hormuz, crippling their engine rooms and forcing crews to abandon ship. Whatever the full explanation, traders read it as a supply risk and rotated toward oil producers rather than safe-haven metals.

The technology trade also cooled. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.3% over the week, a storage chip index lost 3.4% and an index tracking AI winners dropped 3.2%, while an AI software index gained 4.7% — a reminder that the AI trade is no longer one uniform block. Memory names bucked Friday’s weakness, with SK Hynix up more than 3% and Micron up more than 2%, while Google fell over 1% and Amazon and Meta each lost close to 1%.

Elsewhere, positioning in U.S. government debt shifted modestly. CFTC data showed speculators reduced net short positions in CBOT two-year Treasury futures by 54,796 contracts to 856,783, and trimmed ten-year net shorts by 23,809 contracts to 964,293, with five-year shorts also lower. In single names, General Motors closed down 9.6%, its steepest weekly decline since 2023. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed in New York, slipped 0.8% and lost about 3.9% on the week, with most popular Chinese ADRs lower.

For global readers, the takeaway is less about any single number than about rotation. Metals longs are being unwound, energy is being bought, and the dollar is holding near flat on the week within a 101.446 to 102.080 range, as measured by the ICE index. The next test is whether that metals exodus continues or reverses once the oil shock is priced in — and whether the dollar breaks out of that band.