Goldman Sees a $1.7 Trillion Bet Reshaping US Stocks by 2027

Goldman Sachs published a research note on October 9 that contained two numbers of exactly the same size, and their collision may define the next chapter of the US stock market. The first is supply: roughly $1.7 trillion of shares are expected to become freely tradable in 2027 as lockup restrictions expire. Add about $600 billion of new issuance, and the net increase in publicly available US shares could be the largest since 2000.

The second number is demand. Goldman estimates that US companies will spend about $1.7 trillion on share buybacks in 2027, a record. Households and overseas investors have also been steady buyers, absorbing more than $1 trillion of US equities in the first half of this year alone. On paper, the two sides of the market are evenly matched.

The catch is timing and price. Lockup expirations arrive on a schedule set years in advance, while buybacks depend on boardroom confidence and cash flow. If the newly tradable shares hit the market faster than companies can retire stock, the imbalance could pressure valuations, particularly in the technology and healthcare names that dominate recent listing pipelines.

The scale of the coming unlock reflects a record run of initial public offerings and SPAC deals. Founders, early employees and venture investors who have waited through holding periods will finally be able to sell. Many will not sell all at once, but the potential overhang alone can weigh on a stock’s price long before any shares change hands.

Buybacks, meanwhile, have become the default way for large US companies to return cash. Low borrowing costs in past years and strong profit growth funded enormous repurchase programs. Goldman’s forecast assumes that corporate earnings hold up and that executives keep prioritizing buybacks over dividends or capital spending. Any downturn in profits would undercut the demand side of the equation.

For global investors, the standoff matters because US equities remain the largest single allocation in most portfolios. A supply-demand tug of war of this size could influence everything from index returns to the pricing of Chinese and other emerging-market stocks, which compete for the same pool of international capital. It also affects the calculus for companies weighing a US listing.

There are reasons for caution about the forecast. Buyback totals are projections, not commitments, and companies can slow repurchases if they need cash for acquisitions or debt repayment. Lockup expirations do not automatically translate into sales, since insiders often stagger their exits. The real question is whether the market can absorb the new supply without a sharp repricing.

What makes the Goldman note notable is the symmetry. A $1.7 trillion wave of new shares meeting a $1.7 trillion wave of buybacks is the kind of coincidence that invites a bet, and the outcome will depend on which side blinks first. Investors will be watching corporate buyback announcements and insider filing data closely as 2027 approaches.