China's Brokerages See Brighter Outlook for Stocks and Big Models
A cluster of research notes from Chinese brokerages on Monday painted a cautiously optimistic picture of the country’s markets, with analysts arguing that the most difficult stretch for A-share investors is over and that domestic artificial intelligence champions are moving from model builders to platform businesses.
Guojin Securities led the mood shift, telling clients that “the worst environment has passed.” The brokerage acknowledged that heavy spending on AI has pushed up interest rates and global capital costs, but argued that the AI trade has narrowed to American technology companies. Cracks in that US tech investment story, it said, should support a decline in real interest rates for a while. Guojin cautioned that a V-shaped recovery is not yet in place, but said the riskiest phase has passed and that it is time to place measured bets outside the AI sector. Its top pick was gold, which benefits as the pressure from real interest rates eases.
Separately, CITIC Securities said it is bullish on the continued rise of domestic large language models, singling out DeepSeek. The brokerage described Harness, a product tied to DeepSeek, as a potentially key link in the company’s shift from simply supplying models to building a platform ecosystem. That move, CITIC argued, could convert DeepSeek’s open-source and engineering strengths into a user base, ecosystem influence and commercial capability. As competition among AI agents shifts from raw model power to stable, easy-to-use and low-cost task delivery, DeepSeek is widening its reach through plug-ins, preset scenarios and cross-agent collaboration, extending its infrastructure advantage from hardware-software coordination to full task execution.
The optimism extended to the auto and robotics supply chain. CITIC also praised Tesla’s new-generation Roadster, which it said performed stunts such as climbing slopes upside down and flipping in the air at a test site in Texas. The brokerage noted that the Roadster integrates core technology from SpaceX, Optimus and Tesla’s Full Self-Driving line, showing the company’s ability to reuse technology across products. It expects Optimus robots to benefit from the same cross-company synergy and recommended watching the supply chains tied to both the Roadster and Optimus.
On the macro side, China Securities Journal reported that economists expect infrastructure investment growth to rebound in September as multiple funding channels accelerate. Recent incremental policies, including a cut to the interest rate on pledged supplementary lending and better use of local government debt quotas, should support infrastructure spending. Together with efforts to spur private investment, business confidence is also expected to improve.
Huawei-affiliated brokerages also weighed in on overseas markets. Huatai Securities said diesel prices are likely to stay high as the global refining gap persists, gently pushing up US inflation. It also argued that Chinese property stocks are moving toward a “mid-term logic,” with supply contraction creating conditions for broader home-price stabilization, and predicted that national property transaction volumes could reach a new level by 2027.
For global investors, the common thread is a search for value beyond the crowded AI trade. Chinese analysts are steering attention toward gold, domestic AI platforms, robotics supply chains and even property, betting that policy support and technological self-reliance will gradually revive sentiment.